Parlays of the week

• These rules apply from the weekend of Nov 15, 2026. The weekend of Nov 8 was built to our first rules: a pairing’s legs could skip the price test, one player could sit on two tickets, and it used a pairing we have since dropped. Those tickets stand as published.
• Every leg clears the bar our public picks clear: 3★ or better and worth more than its price by our numbers. Both legs of a pairing too.
• Two legs from one game ride together only where we measured that they move together, and the link held up again on games we had not measured.
• Every leg outside a pairing is a 5★ under: no 4★ fill, no overs.
• A player appears on one ticket a weekend at most.
• Fewer parlays, never weaker ones: when 5★ unders sit in too few games, we publish fewer tickets, or none.
• Between two legs we rate the same, we take the one PrizePicks or Underdog posts at that number, so the ticket can be built in one place. Statly may earn a commission from those apps; it never changes a rating.

A parlay pays only when every leg hits, so it is a long shot by design: even when every number we print is right, most tickets miss, and some weekends every ticket does.

That is why we grade every leg as its own call. A few tickets a weekend take seasons to show whether our numbers are any good; their legs show it far sooner.

Every NFL prop from 2026 weeks 1–7, at its closing line, against the box score, then again on 2026 weeks 8–9: games the first measurement never saw, the last week at its opening line. When two legs each priced at 50% are unrelated, both hit 25% of the time.