No black box. Here’s the math.
Most pick services tell you what to bet and hide the why. Statly shows its work — every rating is built from visible factors. Here’s exactly how the Edge Score comes together.
The Edge Score, factor by factor
A 0–100 score, weighted toward what actually predicts a line clearing.
Recent hit rate
How often the player cleared this exact line over their last 10 games. The single strongest signal — recent, repeated, and specific to the line being bet.
Line vs. average gap
The distance between the sportsbook's posted line and the player's recent average. A soft line the books haven't caught up to is where the edge lives.
Matchup difficulty
The opponent's defensive rank against this exact stat. A great line into a brick-wall defense is a trap; an average one into a soft matchup is gold.
Usage / minutes trend
Is the role growing or shrinking? Snaps and touches are recorded in the SAME box score as the points — but the role moves first, so a jump this week is what lifts the floor in the weeks after it, often before the line adjusts.
Injury / role context
The player and their supporting cast — who's in, who's out, and how that reshapes opportunity for this specific line.
The conditions layer most sites skip
Before the core factors are weighed, these run on the sports they apply to — named per sport below, because a factor we do not compute for your sport is not a factor.
Weather — MLB
First-pitch temperature, wind and rain at open-roof parks. Domes are skipped, and we do not model weather for football.
Park & altitude — MLB
The venue itself, and thin air in Denver — it lifts offense and suppresses strikeouts.
Rest — NFL & WNBA
Days off, back-to-backs and short weeks change the floor. Baseball plays daily, so we apply no rest factor there.
Game total — all sports
The market's own number for the game, against the slate average — the pace the books expect.
The cycle — and where we stop
1 · Board drops
The full slate of rated lines posts the moment the previous one ends (Tuesday morning for NFL).
2 · Lines move
Probabilities and projections update in near real-time as news breaks and books shift their numbers.
3 · Kickoff — we stop
Once a game starts, the number on the screen is an in-play line priced for the time remaining. We refuse to rate a full-game projection against it, so a started game shows the call we made pre-game or none at all.
4 · Reset
The board clears and the next slate posts — rebuilt from the newest game logs and the lines that are up now, never carried over from yesterday.
What ships with every line
1–5 star rating
The Edge Score, distilled into an at-a-glance conviction level. Filled gold stars, always.
Over/under probability
Our estimated chance the recommended side hits — a probability, never a promise.
Statly projection
Our predicted number for the stat (e.g. 278.4 passing yards), not just a direction.
A word on what this is — and isn’t
Statly is information and analytics. We are not a sportsbook, we never take bets or hold funds, and nothing here is financial advice. We deal in probabilities and transparent math — never guarantees. Sports betting carries real risk; never wager more than you can afford to lose. Must be 21+.