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PHI · NYM15-Day-IL15-Day-IL15-Day-IL15-Day-IL60-Day-IL60-Day-IL60-Day-IL60-Day-IL15-Day-IL60-Day-IL
Our graded record on Aaron
9-3 · 75%
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PHI Philadelphia Phillies
Thu
7:16 PM ET
New York Mets NYM
This Game’s Lines
Spread
NYM -1.5
PHI +1.5
Total
8
over / under
Moneyline
NYM -132
PHI +109
Aaron Nola Earned Runs Prop
Composite Edge Score
Hit rate, line gap, matchup, usage and conditions — combined into one number.
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At a line of 2.5 — 5 over · 10 under over 15 games.
2026 season
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2.5
@WSHPIT@KC@DETNYMLAD@MIAWSHTOR@MINMIA@SEA@AZATL@ATL
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2.5 · 5/15 over (33%)
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Prop Odds
| Earned Runs | Best odds | Consensus | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 | |||||||
| Under 2.5 |
Injury Report
Daniel Duarte RP · New York Mets
The Mets placed Duarte on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left hamstring strain.
Robert Stock RP · New York Mets
The Mets placed Stock on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with numbness in his fingers.
Devin Williams RP · New York Mets
Williams (shoulder) threw a live batting practice session Monday and will face hitters again Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Cionel Perez RP · New York Mets
Perez (forearm) began a rehab assignment with Double-A Binghamton on Tuesday, striking out two in a perfect frame.
Jorge Polanco DH · New York Mets
The Mets transferred Polanco (ankle) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
Reed Garrett RP · New York Mets
The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
Tylor Megill SP · New York Mets
The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Caleb Kilian RP · Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies transferred Kilian (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Jesus Luzardo SP · Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies are placing Luzardo (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Tuesday, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports. The transaction is retroactive to Sept. 12.
Felix Reyes LF · Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies optioned Reyes to Triple-A Lehigh Valley on Monday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Live report — a key absence swings usage and can move this line.
Player Game Log
Official box scores, most recent first.
| Date | Opp | Result | K | Outs | ER | HA | BB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 | @ ATL | L | 3 | 19 | 2 | 6 | 3 |
| 09-06 | vs ATL | L | 5 | 21 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 08-31 | @ AZ | W | 4 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 2 |
| 08-25 | @ SEA | L | 7 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 08-19 | vs MIA | W | 8 | 21 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| 08-13 | @ MIN | W | 9 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 08-08 | vs TOR | L | 8 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 2 |
| 08-03 | vs WSH | W | 5 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 07-28 | @ MIA | L | 4 | 17 | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 07-22 | vs LAD | L | 4 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 1 |
| 07-16 | vs NYM | L | 6 | 18 | 3 | 6 | 4 |
| 07-10 | @ DET | L | 8 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 07-05 | @ KC | L | 7 | 21 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| 06-29 | vs PIT | L | 5 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
| 06-24 | @ WSH | W | 5 | 15 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 06-18 | vs NYM | L | 6 | 15 | 2 | 7 | 1 |
| 06-13 | @ MIL | W | 3 | 14 | 3 | 6 | 2 |
| 06-07 | vs CWS | W | 4 | 13 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| 06-02 | vs SD | W | 8 | 15 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 05-26 | @ SD | W | 5 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
More Earned Runs plays today
Other earned runs props on today’s slate.
All numbers on this page are live: market odds, official game logs, the league injury report and Statly’s model outputs — probabilities, never guarantees. Information & analytics only · we never take bets · 21+.