Expected value calculator

Every winning bettor thinks in expected value. Enter the odds and a true win probability — and find out if a bet is actually worth making, before you make it.

EV Calculator

Is this bet worth making?

Odds (American)

Your win probability (%)

Tip: on Statly, this is the probability our Edge model gives the pick.

Stake

Your edge vs the line+4.5%

You have an edge — the value is on your side.

Expected value

per bet, long-run average

Positive EV — bet it

$2.50

expected profit on a $25 bet

EV %

+10.0%

Decimal odds

2.20

What is expected value (EV)?

EV is what a bet is worth on average if you could make it over and over. It compares the true probability of an outcome against the probability baked into the odds. If your number is higher than the book's implied number, the bet is +EV — profitable long-term — even if it loses tonight. That gap is exactly what Statly's Edge Score measures: drop our model's probability into the field above and you're computing the EV on a real Statly call.

Information & analytics only. Probabilities, never guarantees. 21+.