Kelly criterion calculator
Betting too big blows up your bankroll; betting too small leaves money on the table. Kelly finds the mathematically optimal stake from your edge and the odds — and we show the half-Kelly most sharps actually use.
Kelly Criterion
Optimal bankroll allocation
On Statly, use our Edge model's probability for the pick.
½-Kelly tick — the safer stake most sharps use.
Kelly stake
% of bankroll (full Kelly)
Edge found — Kelly stake
17.5%$175.00 of your bankroll
Full Kelly stake
$175.00
½ Kelly (safer)
$87.50
Edge vs line
+9.5%
½ Kelly %
8.8%
Most pros bet a fraction of full Kelly (half or quarter) to cut variance. Kelly only has an edge when your probability beats the odds' implied probability. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. 21+.
Bet size is half the game
Kelly stakes a fraction of your bankroll proportional to your edge: more when the value is big, nothing when there's no edge. Full Kelly maximizes long-run growth but swings hard, so most pros bet half or quarter Kelly to smooth the ride. The catch: it's only as good as your win probability — which is exactly what Statly's Edge model is built to estimate.
Information & analytics only. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. 21+.