Most pick services tell you what to bet and hide the why. The Edge Score is the opposite: a single 0–100 number assembled from five visible, weighted factors, so you can see exactly why a line is rated the way it is. Higher means the data more strongly favors our side — it is a measure of evidence, never a promise of a result.
The five core factors
Recent hit rate — 30%
How often the player cleared this exact line over their last 10 games. The strongest signal because it’s recent, repeated, and measured against the precise number being bet.
Line vs. average gap — 25%
The distance between the posted line and the player’s recent average. A soft number the books haven’t caught up to is where an edge lives.
Matchup difficulty — 20%
The opponent’s defensive rank against this exact stat. A great line into a brick-wall defense is a trap; an average one into a soft matchup is gold.
Usage / minutes trend — 15%
Whether the role is growing or shrinking. Snaps and touches are recorded in the same box score as the points — the role simply moves first, so this week’s jump is what lifts the weeks after it.
Injury / role context — 10%
Who’s in, who’s out, and how that reshapes opportunity for this specific line.
On top of the five core weights, conditions factors run before the core factors are weighed. On MLB that means first-pitch weather at open-roof parks and the park itself; on football and the WNBA it means rest. The game total applies on every sport. We say per sport what actually applies rather than listing factors that do not.
How to read it
A rated line
- Edge Score
- 78 / 100
- Star rating
- ★★★★☆
- Statly projection
- 281.6 pass yds
- Line
- 274.5 (Over)
- Probability
- ~62%
The score becomes a 1–5 star conviction level for quick scanning, paired with our projection and an over/under probability. Every line ships with all three.
- Treat it as a ranking tool, not a green light — a high score is a strong case, not a sure thing.
- Read the factor breakdown, not just the number. A score driven by hit rate is different from one propped up by a soft matchup.
- Respect the “limited data” flag — thin history means low confidence, and we say so rather than fake it.
- Pair it with EV: drop our probability into the EV calculator against the actual price to judge whether the line offers value.
And the trust layer: every call is publicly graded hit or miss once the game ends, so the track record stays in the open. Information and analytics only — probabilities and transparent math, never guarantees.